Unlock 1.0: Don't be mistaken, coronavirus is still raging

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Lockdown 4.0 saw Covid-19 cases rise exponentially even though the doubling rate increased by two days. Unlock 1.0 is happening when India has fifth highest number of active coronavirus cases in the world.



HIGHLIGHTS

. Unlock 1.0 begins June 8 with the opening of malls, hotels, religious places

. Lockdown 4.0 saw rise in fresh coronavirus cases by almost 1 lakh

. Between March 17 and June 1 morning, 276 fresh Covid-19 reported every hour

India is reopening gradually. The three-phased unlock 1.0 beginning June 8 comes at a time when the novel coronavirus is raging most fiercely in the country, in terms of the number of cases and casualties due to Covid-19.

For the second day in a row, India recorded more than 8,000 fresh cases of Covid-19. This comes on the back of a near-8,000 case increase reported on May 30. In the last three days, India has recorded around 25,000 fresh cases.

This is the point where India unlocks itself. Lockdown 5.0 that began Monday will be in place till June 30. But this period also includes the first phase of unlock 1.0 which throws open malls, restaurants, hotels and religious places - some of biggest domestic congregations.

Lockdown 4.0 was by far the worst phase of Covid-19 purely in terms of numbers. It saw doubling of coronavirus cases in the country. Close to 1 lakh fresh cases of Covid-19 were recorded during the period.

At the end of lockdown 3.0, the Covid-19 positive numbers stood at less than 91,000. On the morning of June 1, the first day of lockdown 5.0, the number of cases stood at over 1,90,500, according to the Aarogya Setu app as updated around 9.50 am.

This makes an average addition of more than 276 fresh Covid-19 patients every hour. The death toll due to Covid-19 increased from 2,872 to 5,394 during this period. This puts the hourly fatality rate due to Covid-19 at over seven.

Lockdown 4.0 was also the period when India saw a massive improvement in the number of patients recovering from Covid-19. More than 57,600 people recovered from Covid-19 during this period.

However, during this time, the various state governments, the ICMR and the central government were criticised for a marginal dip in testing rates. Though, the overall testing numbers increased and even crossed 1 lakh on certain days. But experts pointed out that coronavirus testing rate per million population and for every confirmed Covid-19 case dropped through May.

The ICMR has now asked the state governments to resume anti-body tests that had been suspended following the discovery of faulty imported kits. To ramp up tests, the ICMR is also conducting sero-surveys in 70 districts with a greater prevalence of Covid-19.

The ICMR and the government have officially maintained that the coronavirus pandemic has not reached the community transmission stage in India. This means all Covid-19 positive cases are contact-traceable. The source of infection is known. This is despite the fresh cases breaking daily records consistently.

This is, however, is not accepted by some groups of independent medical and epidemic experts. They say lockdown 4.0 has witnessed community transmission of Covid-19.

This was asserted in a joint statement by the Indian Public Health Association, the Indian Association of Preventive and Social Medicine and the Indian Association of Epidemiologists over the weekend. The statement said, "community transmission is already well-established across large sections or sub-populations in the country."

India now has the seventh highest number of coronavirus cases. But in terms of active cases, India (close to 1 lakh) stands at the fifth place ahead of Spain (about 89,000) and Italy (75,000). Data for recovered cases in the UK - the overall fourth ranked country for Covid-19 - are not available.

It is at this point of time in the middle of coronavirus pandemic that India is pushing itself towards "normalcy" in business. What goes in India's favour is comparatively lower Covid-19 mortality rate at 2.9 per cent, even though more than 2,000 people have died due to coronavirus complications in the last 12 days.

Another thing that is working for India is the lengthening doubling rate. According to the Union health ministry, the doubling time of Covid-19 cases in India has increased from 13.3 days to 15.4 days over the last 15 days or during lockdown 4.0.

However, the positives must not mask the ground reality that the novel coronavirus is still raging in India without any signs of relenting. More tests, as ICMR plans to conduct over the next few weeks, may see the Covid-19 numbers rising burgeoning further, especially with a larger base of coronavirus transmitters.

Source: IndiaToday.in